Documentation

Everything about polyAether, in one place.

polyAether trades daily city-temperature prediction markets. Its edge is disciplined probability calibration — not speed or hype. Start with the brief for the thesis, the textbook to learn it from zero, or jump straight to the live system.

Live paper validation Weather markets ~80 curated stations

Read

Understand the strategy.

Investor brief

The full thesis in one read — where the edge comes from, a worked example, the risk framework, and an honest account of where we stand today.

Read the brief

The textbook

A from-zero short course — 10 chapters, no prerequisites. Prediction markets, weather forecasting, calibration, sizing, and how the machine runs, all in plain language.

Start learning

Watch it run

The live system.

Public results

The trading outcomes page — open to everyone, no login. Balance, positions, and performance from the live paper loop, updated continuously.

View results

Operator console

The full mission-control dashboard: live markets, forecasts, decisions, and controls. Password-protected — for the operator only.

Open console

Where things stand

polyAether is in a pre-live validation phase — running on paper only, with no real money at risk and no proven track record yet. These pages explain how it is designed to work, not a result it has achieved. Educational and explanatory only; not financial advice.